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| Is this a phase of consolidation before coming to a waterfall? |
This month did not start well with Trump's new tariff slap on China. Just as I was gloating over a 12% gain on my Capitaland's shares, the gain has quickly plummeted by more than half in the blink of an eye before I could react.
Obviously I didn't learn my lesson too well.
My Equity portfolio on the whole is still afloat. Generally speaking, if one uses the war chest to buy good dividend stocks during sales (that's why I say market timing matters), one's portfolio would have a higher margin of safety to weather a market downturn.
Are we at a market downturn? Hmm we are probably nowhere near signs of waterfall yet... (although by the time we catch sight of it, it's often too late to react).
Are we at a market downturn? Hmm we are probably nowhere near signs of waterfall yet... (although by the time we catch sight of it, it's often too late to react).
Let us take a brief glance at the highest to lowest points during STI plunges over the past 10 years.
3189 (07/2011) to 2646 (12/2011)
-17%
3487 (04/2015) to 2539 (02/2016)
-27%
3613 (04/2018) to 2979 (10/2018)
-17.5%
(I did not do the exact calculation on that behemoth plunge for Lehman's crisis, but you can tell from the graph above that it is more than 50% for sure.)
Actually I would rather see a waterfall than a rapid. At least the buy or sell signal would be much clearer. When market goes one-tweet-up-one-tweet-down, I feel like a fool. And this trade war thing is probably going to be a slow-boiling thing which no one can predict its boil-over point.
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