- Using US portfolio to hedge against SG portfolio was a mistake. Because they are not perfectly correlated, both in their direction and magnitude.
Over the last couple of months, US stocks have been on the run up like crazy and I have lost about USD500+ on VXX which bet against the rise of index. It was opened with the intention of hedging against a general market downturn (which happened around this time last year) but didn't happen - given the trade war fatigue (though no confirmed deal signed), no shocking world news and relatively stable economic condition in the US (relatively low unemployment and low interest rate). So people have been parking their cash in stocks and the stock market has been on a steady climb.
I entered too late a position in Mastercard Inc so only have peanut gains so far (a good buy point was at $270). Lesson learnt is to wait for uncertainty in the market and certainty in price action before trying to "hedge". We can never catch the bottom-most nor the top-most price but worse is the middle - trying to bet in which direction it will go.
- SG market has been lukewarm. Singtel was such a drag - after a spike to $3.35 it decided to nose dive again (https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singtels-first-ever-quarterly-loss-one-unlikely-have-ongoing-impact-analysts).
Biggest gainers are OCBC, Capitaland Mall Trust and ST Eng.
- Crypto seems to be in the limelight again. Here's what I understand - blockchain is a form of technology, it enables the existence of cryptocurrency. What made me skeptical about doing crypto investment is mainly counter-party risk. The whatever so-called high return platforms for crypto are offering the so-called derivative products and I am not sure how they are being regulated or what they are being backed up by.With the emergence of various cyptocurrencies these days, how are each of their value being determined? [Read: https://www.investopedia.com/tech/what-determines-value-1-bitcoin/]
If we reverse the coin and deem crypto as the "real money" of tomorrow, then what would be the truly secure way to procure and store them without counter-party risks? Until there's a widespread utility for these by-products of the great technology and there are some means to determine each of their worth, I think trading in them is highly speculative and I will steer clear for now. Amidst all that price volatility, I am not sure what's driving their demand and supply. From what I see, crypto's "spot value" is just pegged to the currencies that the particular crypto is being traded in (is USD the standard?), not pegged to gold, assets, nor businesses. Maybe someone with better knowledge could enlighten?
An advantage of cryptocurrency is, like gold, it cannot be easily minted nor manipulated by monetary policies. How it correlates to the various real currencies will require further observations.
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